Monday, May 17, 2004

The movies versus Reality

The movies versus Reality

Boviosity has a comment on the breathless hyping of the weather at Bizarre Weather Watch. This is prompted by the upcoming film The Day After Tomorrow, which will apparently show simultaneous global warming and an ice age.

It is inevitable it seems, that when some blockbuster disaster movie comes out in the summer, then reporters inevitably ask "could it really happen?". It happens every summer.

The massive tidal waves depicted in the trailer for Day after Tomorrow could possibly happen. An asteroid impact at sea (the earth's surface is 70% water so a 70% chance) could displace that volume of water and provide that amount of energy. We have started to track asteroids that orbit close to earth , and in the future may be able to deal with such a threat.

Another possible source would be the earth itself: a Krakatoa-style volcanic eruption would do it. Perhaps even more dangerous would be a super-tsunami caused by a landslide or earthquake.

There is in fact an island off the western coast of Africa which is slowly slitting into two halves ; it rests atop the conjunction of two continental plates, and as they pull apart the island goes in both directions. Eventually the western side of the island will simply fall into the ocean, triggering a 5 to 10 meter high wave that crosses the ocean in an expanding arc. When that island goes, it will send a tsunami directly into the US seaboard, one which would completely submerge New York City, by a wide margin. The wave will extend well inland, probably all the way to Indianapolis - and it is only a matter of time; could be tomorrow, could be 14000 years from now.

So, hug a puppy today.

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